It was a nightmare earlier than, and after, Christmas for Manchester United and their new boss Ruben Amorim, however their hopes of beginning 2025 off on the fitting foot are severely hampered by a frightening journey to Anfield for his or her first fixture of the yr.
Premier League leaders Liverpool head into the weekend six factors clear on the summit, and it could take one thing miraculous for them to not go on and win the title from right here.
United, their arch-rivals, would after all need to have one thing to say about that in a great world, however the Purple Devils are floundering down in 14th place after Monday’s 2-0 dwelling loss to Newcastle United.
Utilizing the perfect Opta information, we preview Sunday’s headline Premier League contest.
What’s anticipated?
The Opta supercomputer is firmly backing Liverpool, who’ve a whopping 70.2% likelihood of victory heading into this sport.
United, however, got here out on high in solely 13% of the Opta supercomputer’s data-led simulations, whereas the chance of a draw is 16.8%.
Given Liverpool’s current dominance of this fixture, it’s hardly shocking that the mannequin is forecasting a Reds win.
United have scored only one purpose of their final eight Premier League away video games in opposition to Liverpool, failing to attain in every of the final 5. Solely at Everton have that they had an extended run with out scoring of their league historical past (six between 1969 and 1974).
The Purple Devils haven’t gained any of their final eight league away video games in opposition to Liverpool (D4 L4), their longest such run since a run of 9 between 1970 and 1979.
In the meantime, Liverpool have misplaced simply one in all their final 13 Premier League video games in opposition to United (W7 D5), happening 2-1 at Outdated Trafford in August 2022.
Following the Reds’ 3-0 win at Outdated Trafford within the reverse fixture in September, Arne Slot might develop into simply the second Liverpool boss to do the league double over United in his first season with the membership, after George Kay in 1936-37, and if the shape information is something to go by, you then would anticipate that to be the case.
Salah-led Reds rampaging to glory?
It has been fairly the season to date for Liverpool, and their talisman Mohamed Salah.
Regardless of the uncertainty over his future, Salah is arguably within the type of his profession. He had a hand in 39 Premier League targets throughout 2024, scoring 23 and aiding 16. In a calendar yr, solely Salah himself has registered extra purpose involvements within the historical past of the competitors (2018 – 28 targets, 12 assists).
Solely Trent Alexander-Arnold, in the meantime, has offered extra Premier League assists (17 in 2019) for Liverpool in a calendar yr than Salah’s 16 in 2024.
Salah has been concerned in 30 Premier League targets this season (17 targets, 13 assists), scoring and aiding in eight completely different video games, already probably the most by a participant in a single marketing campaign ever. It’s the fifth time he has had 30+ purpose involvements in a season (additionally 2017-18, 2018-19, 2021-22 and 2022-23), the joint most of any participant in Premier League historical past together with Alan Shearer.
It’s not simply Salah that’s shining for Liverpool. Luis Diaz and Cody Gakpo are on high kind, with Diogo Jota additionally scoring within the 5-0 win over West Ham final day trip. Alexander-Arnold has made headlines this week amid hypothesis of an impending transfer to Actual Madrid, however he’s one other participant thriving in Slot’s machine.
Liverpool scored probably the most targets within the Premier League in 2024 (92) – it’s their second-most in a yr within the high flight, behind the 106 targets they netted in 1982. The Reds additionally had 286 pictures on course, the joint most by a crew in a yr, alongside Manchester Metropolis in 2021, since Opta started recording such knowledge in 2004.
The Reds come into this having gained their final three Premier League matches, scoring at the very least three targets in every victory.
They final had an extended successful run whereas scoring three or extra targets in every win in February/March 2014 (six in a row). Their six league matches final month noticed them rating 21 occasions, three greater than another crew within the competitors.
Issues can solely get higher… Can’t they?
Amorim stated he wished to “shock” his United gamers by mentioning they could possibly be in a relegation battle if they aren’t cautious.
In Premier League historical past, 4 groups who had been 14th on the flip of the yr have then been relegated – Newcastle (2008-09), Burnley (2009-10), Norwich Metropolis (2013-14) and Leeds United (2022-23).
United misplaced six matches in all competitions final month. That’s the most video games they’ve misplaced in a single month since they suffered seven defeats approach again in September 1930.
The Purple Devils have misplaced their final three Premier League video games. They haven’t misplaced 4 league video games in a row in the identical season since between December and February 1979, whereas they final suffered 4 defeats in a row with out scoring again in April 1909.
United should tighten up on the again if they’re to get something out of this one. They shipped 18 targets in all competitions in December, their most in a single month since March 1964 (18).
One potential good omen for United is that Liverpool – who beat Newcastle 4-2 of their first outing of 2024 – haven’t gained their opening league sport in consecutive years since doing so in 2013 and 2014.
Regardless of Amorim’s warnings, the Opta supercomputer is predicting United will at the very least safe mid-table mediocrity and keep away from a relegation tussle. They’ve only a 0.1% likelihood of happening because it stands.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Liverpool – Mohamed Salah
Salah has each scored extra targets (12) and offered extra assists (six) in opposition to United than another participant in Premier League historical past.
He contributed to 14 Premier League targets final month, greater than another participant within the competitors.
Manchester United – Bruno Fernandes
United had been with out their captain Fernandes for his or her loss to Newcastle, because the Portugal worldwide served his suspension following his dismissal at Wolves.
The Purple Devils have failed to attain a single purpose in any of the final 4 Premier League matches that Fernandes has not featured in for them.
