The pre-election predictions had been clear: The competition between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris could be determined by the tiniest of margins.
However the ultimate results of the US presidential election has seemingly defied these forecasts, with former President Donald Trump profitable each the favored vote and the Electoral Faculty comfortably.
So how badly has Harris finished, and the place did her marketing campaign go unsuitable — so unsuitable that Trump might find yourself with the biggest in style vote margin of victory for any Republican candidate in 36 years?
What was the result of the US election?
Trump has already gained 295 Electoral Faculty votes whereas Harris stands at 226. The bulk mark is 270.
Though ballots for voting precincts in lots of swing states haven’t been known as, together with Michigan, Wisconsin, Philadelphia, Georgia, Nevada and Arizona, Trump has already been declared winner in 5 of them, as a result of the lead he enjoys there exceeds the votes nonetheless to be counted.
Nevada and Arizona are the one two states that haven’t but been known as, however pollsters now predict Trump ought to win each — which might put Trump’s ultimate Electoral Faculty rely at 312 votes.
Trump has additionally already gained almost 73 million votes, in comparison with 68 million votes for Harris.
Previous to this election, George W Bush was the final Republican to win the favored vote 20 years in the past. Bush gained 62,040,610 votes and 286 electoral votes compared to Democratic nominee John Kerry, who secured 59,028,444 votes and 251 electoral votes.
The final time a Republican gained the favored vote by a bigger margin than the one Trump at present enjoys was Bush’s father, George HW Bush, in 1988.
Harris seems poised to lose all seven swing states. And the margin of her victory in decidedly “blue” or Democrat-leaning states has additionally shrunk. Within the 2020 US election, Biden was up 16 factors towards Trump in New Jersey, as an illustration, whereas Harris gained the state by solely 5 factors this time — that’s virtually inside the margin of error for a lot of pollsters.
She has additionally underperformed in neighbouring New York state, one other deep blue stronghold. With 97 p.c of votes counted, Harris has gained by 11 share factors. In 2020, Biden beat Trump in New York by 23 share factors.
So how did Harris’s marketing campaign collapse?
A late begin?
Greater than two years in the past, in 2022, a New York Occasions ballot discovered that only 26 percent of Democrats needed their president, Joe Biden, to characterize the occasion once more within the 2024 race. In different phrases, three out of 4 Democrats had been calling for a brand new chief.
But, following the occasion’s success within the midterm elections that yr, the Democrats determined to again Biden as their candidate for 2024.
It was solely after a disastrous debate efficiency towards Trump in June 2024 that Biden pulled out of the race the next month. Harris had solely 4 months to arrange and run her marketing campaign. Regardless of some requires a main course of to elect the occasion’s new face, most heavyweight Democratic Social gathering figures — together with former President Barack Obama and spouse Michelle — rapidly endorsed Harris.
She was finally nominated with out a main. That meant that Harris was by no means examined this yr in a contest towards different presidential aspirants from her personal occasion — which had a fait accompli thrust upon it.
Combined messaging: Totally different from Biden — or not?
Harris needed to choose up the marketing campaign baton in July from a deeply unpopular president, whose rankings had been hovering within the low 40s. After the Trump-Biden debate that pushed the Democratic Social gathering to alter its nominee, Trump led Biden 49 p.c to 43 p.c in approval rankings, in response to a New York Occasions/Siena Faculty ballot.
The vice chairman tried to differentiate her marketing campaign from Biden’s, promising that she was “turning the web page” and that “we aren’t going again”. Nevertheless, when pushed in interviews or on TV exhibits about Bidenomics — Biden’s financial insurance policies — particularly, she struggled to distinguish herself from the president.
When requested whether or not there may be something she would have finished otherwise than Biden over the previous 4 years in an interview on The View in October, Harris responded, “There’s not a factor that involves thoughts by way of — and I’ve been part of many of the choices which have had influence.”
This, at a time when approval of the financial system is at a low, and inflation is but to return right down to pre-COVID-19 ranges.
“There’s not a factor that involves thoughts” grew to become a phrase that the Trump marketing campaign would use in ads to painting Harris as an extension of Biden’s legacy, with accompanying taglines like “costs nonetheless rising”, and “unlawful crossings surge”.
However Harris additionally misplaced voters amongst some key constituencies that had lengthy backed the Democratic Social gathering, even in comparison with Biden. And Trump’s capacity to shave away voters from Harris whereas bringing them over to his Make America Nice Once more (MAGA) coalition, proved to be a profitable technique.
Misplaced voters: Arab and Muslim People
Harris misplaced floor with Arab American and Muslim voters due to the Biden administration’s full-throated help for Israel’s brutal conflict on Gaza and Lebanon. This culminated within the emergence of the Abandon Harris marketing campaign that was endorsed by Inexperienced Social gathering candidate Jill Stein.
In keeping with the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR), the biggest Muslim advocacy group within the US, by the point of the election, Stein led with 42 p.c of the Muslim vote within the US with Harris at 41 p.c and Trump at 10 p.c.
On Election Day, this pattern would bear fruit for Trump. Dearborn, Michigan, which has one of many highest concentrations of Arab-People within the US, voted 47 p.c for Trump, 28 p.c for Harris, and 22 p.c for Jill Stein, in response to numbers reported by town clerk for that district.
Black voters shifting away
Black voters have been the one most devoted voting bloc for the Democratic Social gathering for the reason that election of Franklin D Roosevelt in 1932.
Expectations for Black help had been excessive for Harris, being the primary mixed-race candidate of African and Indian American heritage within the election. She was additionally within the working to turn into the second African American to make it to the White Home.
However she confronted headwinds.
A Gallup ballot final yr confirmed that the proportion of Black adults within the US who contemplate themselves Democrats had decreased from 77 p.c in 2020 to 66 p.c.
Within the present election, Black voters supported Trump at ranges not seen since George W Bush’s election in 2000.
In keeping with exit polls from the Related Press, Trump gained 20 p.c of the Black vote this time. He gained 13 p.c of the group’s vote in 2020 and eight p.c in 2016.
In Pennsylvania, an important swing state within the 2024 election, Harris misplaced 3 share factors in Black help in comparison with 2020, with 89 p.c versus Biden’s 92 p.c. Trump would acquire 3 factors, from 7 p.c in 2020 to 10 p.c this time.
In Wisconsin, the numbers had been much more stark. Harris’s help amongst Black voters fell by 15 share factors — 77 p.c versus 92 p.c for Biden. Trump’s voter share soared from 8 p.c in 2020 to 21 p.c in 2024.
“Frustrations are being made clear on this rising share of Black voters [who are] taking a unique take a look at the Republican Social gathering generally, and are exploring some curiosities with Trump, regardless of his racial baggage,” mentioned Adolphus Belk, a political science professor at Winthrop College in South Carolina, referring to a string of feedback and actions by Trump which have bee criticised as racist through the years.
What occurred to the Latino vote?
Harris additionally misplaced help amongst Latino voters. Exit polls revealed a considerable 14 percentage-point enhance in Trump’s help amongst this demographic in comparison with the earlier presidential election in 2020.
The financial system was the primary concern amongst Latino voters. Juxtapose these considerations with many seeing the financial system lagging beneath Biden-Harris, and the vice chairman was all the time going through an uphill battle.
Latino voters, particularly these in older age teams, had been predominantly involved with rising inflation charges, escalating healthcare bills, and the rising price of housing, which took priority over broader points, in response to a latest AP survey.
In the meantime, the Democratic marketing campaign emphasised themes similar to democratic values, reproductive rights, and immigration coverage.
What about girls voters?
Girls voters, a key a part of the Harris marketing campaign coalition, had been anticipated to point out heavy help for Harris on the polls on Election Day. A focused promoting marketing campaign urged conservative girls to forged their ballots for Harris. Furthermore, polls indicated that Harris maintained a considerable 20-point benefit over Trump on the problem of abortion rights.
Trump has constantly taken credit score for the Supreme Courtroom’s June 2022 verdict overturning Roe v Wade, the 1973 judgment that made abortion a nationwide proper. Three conservative appointments to the court docket by Trump had enabled the 2022 determination.
Nevertheless, early nationwide exit polls revealed that Harris secured the help of 54 p.c of girls voters, falling in need of Biden’s efficiency in 2020 when he garnered 57 p.c of the feminine vote.
However surveys earlier than the election, and exit polls after the voting, each confirmed that ladies within the US rated inflation and different considerations in regards to the financial system as a very powerful situation earlier than them — rather more than abortion rights.
Harris misplaced the blue wall
The historically Democratic “blue wall” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin unexpectedly shifted to Republican management within the 2024 US presidential election, paving the way in which for Donald Trump’s conquer Vice President Kamala Harris.
This mirrored Trump’s 2016 marketing campaign technique, when he penetrated the blue wall, fairly than the 2020 election wherein Joe Biden efficiently recaptured these essential swing states for the Democratic Social gathering.
In Michigan, Trump eked out a win with a razor-thin margin of 1.4 share factors. Pennsylvania proved barely extra decisive, with Trump profitable by three share factors. Wisconsin delivered the closest contest, the place Trump gained by simply over one share level.
These aren’t the one swing states Trump gained. Trump seems poised to win all swing states, totalling 93 electoral votes.
- Pennsylvania: 19 electoral votes
- North Carolina: 16 electoral votes
- Georgia: 16 electoral votes
- Michigan: 15 electoral votes
- Arizona: 11 electoral votes
- Wisconsin: 10 electoral votes
- Nevada: 6 electoral votes
The blue wall’s collapse made a pathway to victory unimaginable for Harris. With that, the sport was over.
