Sean Dyche’s time at Everton has come to an end – and only time will tell whether it was the right move for a club now looking to leave their miserable years behind, or a premature call that could plunge them into their deepest trouble yet.
Just as at Watford and Burnley, a change of ownership has spelt the end for Dyche. The manager is not to everyone’s tastes, but his ability to keep sides in the Premier League against all odds is unmatched by anybody else working in the country in recent years.
The question the Everton board have had to consider is whether Dyche and his style was getting the best results possible out of a limited squad, or whether his approach was actually holding them back and keeping them in the relegation mix.
Was Sean Dyche holding Everton back or getting more out of this team than anyone realised?
A goalscoring return of just 15 from 19 games absolutely paltry no matter how you look at it, yet their defensive record is bettered only by six of the top seven, and is superior to Manchester City’s – not that that means anything like as much as it used to. Only Nottingham Forest have kept more clean sheets. Most importantly: that record has helped keep Everton outside the relegation zone so far.
It boils down to a classic question, then. Would taking a more attacking approach generate sufficiently more goals for Everton to compensate from the extra they might concede from taking the handbrake off?
Dyche has data on his side to support the idea that it wouldn’t. Unsurprisingly, Everton have the lowest xG in the Premier League – Opta record it at just 18.33 – but are still one of the biggest under-performers in the division against the chances they create. Only Southampton (6.42 per cent) have a worse conversion rate than Everton’s 6.94 per cent.
Wolves have scored roughly twice as many goals as Everton from almost exactly the same number of shots. Brentford have scored over two and a half times as many goals, again from almost exactly the same number of shots.
But do Everton have anyone in their squad with anything like the reliable goalscoring capabilities of Yoane Wissa, Bryan Mbeumo, Jorgen Strand-Larsen or Matheus Cunha? Do they have anybody to match the creative output of Mikkel Damsgaard or Ryan Ait-Nouri? You can well imagine Dyche sitting in his office, asking those same questions of himself.
But Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Ashley Young and Dwight McNeil might insist that they do have the required talent, and that all they need is a bit more license to let their talents show.
Everton’s run of draws against Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester City over the Christmas period was creditable, but they have also shared the spoils with Leicester, Fulham, West Ham and Brentford. They have lost without scoring to Southampton, Brighton, Tottenham and Manchester United – none of them especially esteemed as defensive powerhouses.
That is where the defence-first approach feels costly, and makes for a stronger case against Dyche. They’ve already lost 4-0 to Spurs and United anyway: does it really make a difference to them to try something different and risk the same scoreline, but also increase the possibility of, you know… winning some games?
It’s a trite point, but one that would have been crucial to Everton: you get more points for winning one and losing two than you do for drawing two and losing the other.
The attack v defence paradigm is increasingly outdated in any case. A team that performs well in attack will spend less time defending their own goal, and there is an argument that Dyche’s approach has only invited pressure onto a defence capable of handling more than they have been allowed.
That’s why it’s unsurprising to see David Moyes linked with the vacancy, and you suspect it has little to do with sentimentality.
A manager like Moyes would not be inclined to throw Dyche’s defensive baby out with the attacking bath water; instead, he would look to find a suitable balance between the two. Moyes was successful in doing that through much of his time at West Ham and his prior spell at Everton.
Binning off Dyche is a gamble for Everton, but one they evidently feel is worth them taking. Now they just need to hope the faith they have in their squad to achieve more with a lighter leash is merited.
