Liverpool lead the way in the Premier League under new coach Arne Slot while Chelsea’s young but expensive side are close behind, and the classic ‘top at Christmas’ chat is starting to rear its head.
Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal are lacking creativity but sit in third place while Manchester City cannot be completely ruled out despite their staggeringly poor form. Yet history shows that being top of the Premier League at Christmas Day is not a guarantee of success come the end of the season.
Data from JeffBet has highlighted the success of clubs in converting a top spot on Christmas Day into a Premier League title, with Liverpool failing prominently.
Liverpool have won just one title despite being top at Christmas six times
Liverpool have been top on six occasions on Christmas Day; 1996, 2008, 2013, 2018, 2019 and in 2020. However, they only went on to win the title once in the Covid-disrupted 2019/2020 season. No other side has been top as frequently as the Reds on Christmas Day, and not gone on to win the Premier League.
History does not bode well for Arne Slot but the Dutchman, who ranked at no.9 in FourFourTwo’s list of the best managers in the world right now, will be hoping he can do what Brendan Rodgers, Rafa Benitez and Roy Evans failed to achieve.
Liverpool are not the only side who failed to win the league despite festive success, with just 50 per cent of titles going to the side who were top on Christmas Day. On eight occasions, the team top at Christmas has gone on to finish second – 25 per cent of the time – with Arsenal doing that in the 2022/23 and 2023/24 seasons.
However, Arsenal fans should not give up hope as their three Premier League victories have all come when overtaking teams in the second half of the season.
Similarly, despite winning just eight of their opening 16 games, Manchester City have history on their side as they have been top of the table just three times on Christmas Day, but have gone on to win the title eight times.
Chelsea have a chance to overtake Liverpool this weekend when Premier League action returns – if they can beat Everton and rivals Tottenham defeat Liverpool. On the five occasions Chelsea have won the Premier League they have been top at Christmas every time. Enzo Maresca will either have to carry on this trend or attempt to win Chelsea’s first-ever league title when coming from behind.
On just two occasions teams the top teams finished fourth – Liverpool in 1996/97 and Newcastle United in 2001/02.
But the worst-placed finish goes to Aston Villa, who despite being top at Christmas Day in 1998/99, completely fell apart to finish sixth.